Quick analysis regarding current situation in Ukraine (October 15th 2022)

Aresinfoservice

Public Release

Critical infrastructure is being hit, electricity and railroads in particular, using Iskander missiles (from Belarus), Kalibr missiles (launched by the Russian Navy from the Black Sea), Kh-101 and Kh-555 missiles launched by TU-65/TU-160 Russian Aerospace Force aircraft from the Caspian Sea, and Iranian Geran-2 UAV launched from southern Ukraine and Southern Belarus.

This has two immediate effects: Lack of energy for the coming winter in Ukraine and impossibility to export electricity to Moldova and Europe (Moldova has a territorial problem with pro Russian Transnistria where the biggest weapons stockpile of Europe is located). This will generate tensions with Europe, bring more uncertainty, impact on public opinion and erase the 1.5 billion Euros expected from exports.
Railroads destruction decreases Ukraine´s logistics capacity, specially with this new phase that we believe will start in winter.
According to our analysis from April 2022, Russia could keep expanding towards Odessa and Transnistsria. Transnistria is a pro Russian unrecognized breakaway state east of Moldova and under military Russian occupation.

Russian troops and fighter jets keep arriving to Belarus.
Belarus continues to increases combat readiness.
Both Russian and Belarusian increased presence in the southern border of Belarus eases pressure in the south of Ukraine and opens a new front in the North, and specially on Kiev.
Unconfirmed reports say that Warner PMC looks to consolidate power outside of the Russian MOD umbrella.
We think that the November 8th election in the US is pivot point regarding the war in Ukraine. Probably this will weaken the democratic party at all levels. Biden approval rate keeps dumping, 55% of Americans disapprove Joe´s Biden administration.

We believe Russia is waiting for the beginning of winter. This will difficult greatly the movement of light Ukrainian vehicles and infantry that started the Ukrainian counteroffensive. Demoralized, weakened by lack of advancement and with Russian mobilization troops already trained and deployed, it would be a great moment for a Russian large scale offensive.
It would be logic to strengthen current lines of defense and give time to the mobilized troops to be trained and deployed. It is crucial to contain ukraines advance at all costs. Wagner Group PMC has already started passive defensive work in Luhansk area.

Kherson is described as a “fortress”. Is critical for Russia to avoid capture of Kherson and keep NATO (Ukraine) north of the Dniper river in the southern area of Ukraine.

Unconfirmed reports say that mobilized troops would be already deployed in the next coming two weeks. This would help to strengthen defensive positions in the south and east.
Russia is conducting small offensives in the south central region and east of Ukraine.
Russian hacker groups are conducting Ddos attacks on the US and Ukraine, and stealing valuable information from the Ukrainian intelligence/military.
Russia keeps consolidating support in Asia.
The ruble is one of the strongest currencies of the year and keeps increasing payment in rubles.

OPEC, lead by Russia and Saudi Arabia, want to cut oil production. This will increase price and will have a negative impact in all of “Occident”.

US keeps depleting its strategic oil reserves. Increase in price will keep hurting Biden and the Democratic party.

Russia may have ordered Arash-2 drones. Pouya Air cargo planes, (linked to Al Quds and IRGC), keep arriving to Moscow.

Ukraine´s anti aircraft is not capable of stopping Russian attacks at the moment. The arrival of the German provided IRIS-T air defense system will help closing the gap. These systems are already deployed in the south of Ukraine.

NAFO Fellas, continue to grow. They are about 100.000+ Twitter accounts performing Psy Ops on behalf of Ukraine. We believe it´s supported by UK 77 Brigade and US Intelligence.

Final thoughts:

We expect a large Russian offensive by November during the beginning of winter and after the Ukrainian counteroffensive looses momentum.
It would be optimal to boost psychological warfare on Ukrainian population before and during counteroffensive.
It would be optimal to boost psychological warfare on European population before winter. It is crucial to change public opinion about war in Ukraine and sanctions against Russia. This would have a direct impact on pressure on European leaders and in NATO and EU in general.
The Ukrainian counteroffensive was a pivot point since it was obvious that NATO had taken full control of the Ukrainian Army and Foreign Figthers. At this point, NATO supplies weapons, ammunition, intelligence, training, psy ops, and conducts operations in Ukraine. This is a Proxy War between Russia and NATO, using Ukraine´s manpower and infrastructure. This lead to a semi-organized tactical retreat to avoid encirclement.
Nordstream sabotage is mostly guaranteed linked to the US. This breaks the “Russian-German” energetic alliance. From a geopolitical and strategic point of view, this is a serious blow to Russia´s consolidation and to the German economy.

Russia can´t loose this war and NATO will fight until the last Ukrainian standing. Atlantism is at stake, UK, US and Israel may loose power in Occident if Russia wins in Ukraine.
Increase in gas and oil prices was highly beneficial for Russia. Exports to India and China increased in large numbers.
Crimean bridge sabotage and Dugin´s daughter assassination linked to Ukrainian SBU intelligence service.
Increased military and intelligence activity in the Balkans between NATO and Russian allies.

Contact (Telegram): @Aresinfoserviceadmin